AI 不是来当员工,而是来当老板的| 46 个 AI「金句」
毫无疑问,我们处在一个 AI 的大变革时代。
每天都有新的 Agent 发布,新的模型开源。每天都有小 AI 公司正在变成巨头,而巨头们也在拿到越来越多的,甚至令人难以置信的钱。
或兴奋,或恐惧,或担忧。在所有的大变革时代,我们都难免多想。
在中国,APPSO 关注 AI 的同事们经常因为大洋彼岸的新闻而「夜半惊醒」——而在美国,看起来从业者们也同样会因为 AI 的日新月异而睡不着觉。
投资网红 Greg Isenberg 就是一个经常多想、辗转反侧的人。他参与创办了上百个项目,目前是投资机构 Late Checkout 的 CEO 和 The Startup Ideas 播客的主播。
昨天,Isenberg 在他的 X 账号上发布了一条长文,说自己半夜睡不着,想出了 46 条和 AI 有关的「金句」。
其中大部分是他的个人观点,甚是有趣。我们将这条长文编译分享出来,并且展开聊聊其中的部分思考。
1. GPT-4o 的图像生成功能与 ChatGPT 发布一样震撼,将会催生上千个百万至亿级美元的垂直领域软件商机。
chatgpt 4o image gen is as big as the chatgpt launch. probably will birth 1000+ $1-$100m/year vertical software businesses.
2. 当前的 AI 生成内容,就像数字音乐早期的「MP3-Napster」时代。数百万创作者并没有意识到,他们的作品未来将成为打败他们的武器。
we’re in the “mp3 napster era” of content. millions of creators don’t realize their entire back catalog is being weaponized into their competition because of AI.
3. 在三年内,日历、邮件和 CRM 工具将经历根本性重构——不是渐进式的AI升级,而是范式级的重新设计。
every calendar, inbox, and CRM will be rebuilt from scratch in the next 3 years. not “AI-enhanced,” fully rethought.
4. AI 不是来当员工,而是来当老板的!首批具备管理人类能力的 AI 系统将彻底重构劳动力市场,其影响力将远超工业革命。
i thought ai was creating digital employees. but it’s more like digital employers. the first ai systems that can manage human workers will cause a restructuring of labor markets more significant than the industrial revolution.
5. 如果你的工作是招聘人→训练系统→系统替代人去做招聘工作,那么你不是 HR,而是一个程序员,正在编写卸载自己的程序。
if your job is interviewing people who will train ai systems that will replace people who do interviews, you’re just a step in a weird recursive extinction.
6. AI 将难以规模化的服务生意,转变为兼具产品利润和服务溢价的新生意。能用 AI 做 80% 工作的产品化解决方案,将成为新的独角兽企业。
ai is turning “service businesses that don’t scale” into “product businesses with service margins.” the new unicorns will be productized services with ai doing 80% of the work.
7. 不要痴迷于打磨产品。社群运营更难,更决定生死。大部分创业公司死掉是因为没人在乎。
building communities is harder than building products but everyone pretends it’s the reverse. the reality is most startups fail because nobody cares.
8. 威尔·史密斯吃意面?那是 739 天前的 AI 水平。想象一下再过 739 天,生成式 AI 会进化到什么程度?
it’s been 739 days since the will smith spaghetti video. imagine what could happen to gen ai in 739 more days?
APPSO 的延展思考:在图像/视频的生成式 AI 方向,上一次重大破圈事件是3 月的「OpenAI 吉卜力风格迁移生成」,而两年前的威尔·史密斯吃意面是上上次。
这两次事件有异同之处:相同的是都和知名文化现象/符号有关,从而很容易地导致了破圈;不同则在于最初版本的吃意面视频过于粗糙,十分「魔性」。这种失真感不但没有影响人们对 AI 强大的预期,反而显著加强了这个梗的病毒传播。
9. 开发 AI 助理的人,大多没用过真人助理。真正的助理懂背景、记历史、重关系——而 95% 的聊天机器人,三者皆无。
people building “ai assistants” have never actually had assistants. real assistants need context, history, and relationship. 95% of chatbots have none of those.
APPSO 的延展思考:不需要用过助理,大多数用户已经觉得 AI 助理很蠢了。有给它交代上下文、打磨提示的工夫,还不如自己去干了。
10. 3年内,连最高级的客诉处理都将被 AI 取代,包括你现在认为必须人工的复杂客诉。
most customer support will be automated within 36 months. not just tier 1 tickets, complex, multi-step resolution that previously required senior support staff.
11. 创业最危险的结局不是归零,而是被卡在「生存线」上——足够温饱,永远不够自由。该止损还是加注?我总在思考这个困境。
the worst thing that can happen to your startup is mediocre success. enough to keep you going but not enough to change your life. most founders are trapped there. thinking about this a lot with respect to shutting down or doubling down on projects.
12. 反抗AI的不只是失业者——每个发现自己的数字痕迹被擅自用作AI养料的人,都会加入抵抗。
the ai backlash won’t just come from replaced workers, it’ll be from everyone who realizes their entire digital identity is being converted into training data without consent.
13. 没人会看用户条款。
no one has ever read a terms of service ever
14. AI 真正的颠覆在于「草图经济」:设计无门槛,审美和创意才是硬通货。
the “sketching economy” is the real ai revolution. when anyone can turn rough sketches into production-ready designs, taste and ideation become the only scarce resources.
APPSO 的延展思考:作为文字和视觉的工作者,APPSO 对于这一观点深深赞同。AI 能生成看起来非常有「思考」味和「设计」感的内容,用于非严肃场景是可以的,一旦放在商业和专业场景,生成结果的破绽,以及审美的同质化、大中华是个很大的问题。
究其根本,审美和创意是一种非常「个人化」和「人性化」的概念。创作是创作者个人的行为,但也是和观者的一次交流。这种交流需要双方有着类似的人生经验、相近的认知水平。
一种极端但往往正确的观点是:大众的审美水平永远趋向降低。所以真正的审美和创意一定会成为稀缺资源。
看看现实吧,AI 并不是取代了能深度思考的人,而是让本来就懒得深度思考的人更不需要思考了。审美和创意也是一样,AI 在这方面的能力,只会让更多人彻底失去掌握这些能力的必要。
15. AI 创业的真金白银,藏在吃透行业痛点的垂直应用里——不是在提示里加两个行业黑话就行的。
i dont know how else to say it, the money (and opportunity for the avg joe) is in ai startups is in vertical-specific applications that actually understand industry context. no, adding industry terms to your prompts isn’t the same thing.
16. 消费移动设备又复兴了。从桌面→移动→AI 优先,我们已进入 AI 原生时代——下一批独角兽,必是深度整合 AI 的移动应用。
consumer mobile is back in full swing. we went from desktop-first apps to mobile-first apps to now ai-first mobile apps. the next wave of $100m/year apps will start mobile-first with ai baked in from day one.
17. AI 「套壳」大战才刚打响。介于底层大模型和终端行业之间的中间商,将收割最大红利。而模型和行业应用本身终将沦为廉价商品。
the ai middleman boom is just starting. companies that sit between foundation models and specific industries will capture most of the value while both ends get commoditized.
APPSO 的延展思考:这个观点很有趣,但也有一定的讨论空间。行业里有另一种主流观点,和它几乎完全相反:未来所有的模型都将产品化,而 wrapper 等纯工程层面的公司,不会比真正掌握底座大模型研发能力的公司走得更远。因为工程能力谁都可以拥有,但买得起卡,训练的起大模型才是真正的杀手锏?
当然,这两种观点都比较极限。现实很有可能是折中的。即便大模型公司有再多的钱,它也不会比小公司小团队更敏捷、更理解所处的垂直行业。千行百业不能一家独霸,大概就是这个道理。
18. 我们正在目睹新工种的诞生:AI 流程设计师将成为新一代金领,专精于把人类流程转化为 AI 增强的工作流。
we’re witnessing the birth of a whole new job category: ai workflow designers. people who can map human processes into ai-augmented workflows will be the highest-paid consultants of the next decade.
19. AI 加速「赢家通吃」的局面:垂直行业的龙头之争,窗口期仅 6-12 个月,错过即出局,要么再等十年。想到这我彻底失眠了
ai is creating winner-take-most markets overnight. the window to establish yourself as the go-to solution in a specific vertical is maybe 6-12 months before it closes for a decade. this isn’t helping my sleep lollll.
20. 创业金点子:用AI重塑传统行业产品——这就是你的杀手锏。找一个已被验证的非 AI 产品,用 AI 思维彻底重构,再找行业 KOL 引爆卖点。这把稳赢。
really smart strategy to rebuild traditional products with ai as your unfair advantage, hiding the complexity behind familiar interfaces. basically, just look at proven apps that have no ai, make them ai-first (if it adds a ton of value to end customer). use ai features (don’t sell ai) in creator-led marketing. this is the playbook.
21. 直达用户的渠道是唯一的护城河。你的产品、技术、团队都可以被复制,渠道不能。
distribution is the only moat left. your product, tech, and team can all be replicated. your direct connection to customers cannot.
22. 临界点就快到了:对小企业而言,定制 AI 工具将比雇佣员工更划算。
we’ll soon hit the tipping point where custom ai tools are cheaper than hiring humans, even for small businesses.
23. 很少有人在讨论这件事:AI 正让曾经「无人问津」的企业变得抢手。当业务能自动化运转时,收购逻辑也变了,投资人会追逐那些「买来就能自动赚钱」的公司。
nobody’s talking about how ai is making previously “un-acquirable” businesses suddenly attractive targets. when you can automate operations, the owner-dependent business problem disappears.
24. 续上条:即将到来的中小企业收购潮,会比 2021 年的科技泡沫更夸张。当 AI 把运营成本砍掉了 60%,小企业会成为现金流机器。
the coming smb acquisition frenzy will make the 2021 tech bubble look tame. when ai drops operating costs by 60%, every small business becomes a cash flow engine.
25. 如果「氛围编程」(AI 写代码)是一个千亿美元的机会的话,那么「氛围营销」的市场会有多大?。
if vibe coding will be a $100B opportunity, how big of an opportunity is vibe marketing? (you can follow my co-founder @boringmarketer for more on that)
APPSO 的延展思考:上面这几条和中小企业、创业方向有关的思考都非常值得参考。当然不是说直接跟着他走,而是如果你的企业正好符合他的描述,你应该考虑更积极地拥抱 AI,探索 AI 工具和自动化能否为你提高效率,甚至让你可以对行业里的既得利益者和巨头们发起挑战。
当然,不要因为过度使用 AI 而让你的核心员工和老员工们对你失望。如果你因为 AI 逆天改命,也应该让他们从中分得一杯羹。
26. 游戏工作室将会两极分化:一边是 AI 智能体驱动的「内容农场永动机」,可以批量生成无限的素材;另一边是专注核心玩法的「精品工作室」。无法转型的中间层将被淘汰。
Video game studios will separate into two distinct types: agent-driven content farms that generate infinite assets, and boutique studios focused on core mechanics. The middle will disappear entirely.
27. 企业可能更愿意花每月几十美元订阅 AI 工具无限生成素材,而不是 2000 美元/天雇一个商业摄影师。商业摄影赛道凉凉。
Corporate photography is effectively dead. No company will pay $2K for a stock-style photoshoot when they can generate unlimited perfectly on-brand imagery for the cost of a subscription.
28. AI 能够颠覆企业销售模式:它能精准识别最佳销售时机,锁定买家,并自动触发销售流程。
enterprise sales is being completely inverted by ai. using ai to identify exactly when and how to talk to the right buyer, and set off automations. ill probably talk about this more on a pod soon.
29. 我在思考:AGI 是否会从相互连接的智能体网络中「涌现」出来?这些智能体网络可能自己涌现出意料之外的特性,而我们正在不知不觉中构建着它们的「神经网络」。
i wonder if AGI will emerge from interconnected agent networks that develop emergent properties nobody designed? we’re building the neural connections without realizing it.
30. 虽然生成式 AI 看似将成就万亿级市场,真正的「隐形金矿」其实在预测式 AI 领域。预知未来的价值,永远高于创造内容。
while genai looks to be the $1T category, many quiet fortunes will be built in predictive ai. knowing what will happen is more valuable than generating new content.
APPSO 的延展思考:目前的生成式 AI,生成的是它自己认为将会发生的东西。基于大语言模型的 AI 会遵循文本的规则和概率的规则。而预测式 AI(比如天气、地质、金融、社会工程学的垂类 AI)需要遵循现实规则。后者是不是大语言模型,也说不定,可能是基于,或者从大语言模型精修特调的的专家模型。
当然,如果大语言模型发展太快、太普及,甚至成为实际的权威和统治者——那么将会发生什么,也是大语言模型说了算……
31.所谓的「AI 泡沫」,不过是 VC 们因为分不清 API wrapper 和真·创新而交的学费。
the “ai bubble” is actually an excise tax on vcs who can’t tell the difference between genuine innovation and repackaged openai apis.
32. 人机交互即将迎来「人格化革命」。当每个工具都能与你对话时,AI 的氛围和腔调,将会决定用户信任、忠诚、留存率。
interfaces will become personalities. when every tool can talk back, vibe and tone will drive trust, loyalty, and retention. It’s why I’m investing more in our design firm for the AI age @meetLCA (you can follow for more insights on designing/taste/brand that will stand out)
33. AI 将杀死传统首页。未来的入口界面会因人而异、因需而变、因时而动。
ai will kill the homepage. interfaces will get replaced by entry points that change based on who you are, what you need, and when you show up.
34. 用户不为「AI」买单,只为结果付费。
no one will pay for “ai”, they’ll pay to solve a $10,000/hour problem in 3 clicks. sell outcomes, hide the ai.
35. Google 的万亿帝国可能被 AI 拆解:旅游搜索、商品比价、本地服务等等,每个细分领域都是待掘的金矿。
ai is unbundling google. every vertical search engine, directory, and comparison tool is a billion-dollar opportunity in disguise.
36. 未来的小企业标准配置:1个创始人+5个 AI 员工组成的「影子团队」,自动搞定财务、销售、营销全流程。
every small business will get a “ghost team.” automated bookkeepers, sales agents, marketers—run by one founder and 5 bots.
37. AI 生成内容导致了文化的同质化危机,当全球共享同一套模型,我们得到的将是无限重复的「数字回声」。具有原创性人类思考将会成为最终级的附加值。怪异会成为卖点,请保持怪异。
ai-generated content is creating a monoculture of ideas. when everyone uses the same models, we get the same outputs. original human thinking is becoming the ultimate premium. be weird. weird will sell.
APPSO 的延展思考:不只人过度依赖 AI,就连 AI 自己也在不断加强对自己的依赖。
机器学习的经验指出,过度依赖生成的数据再次训练,有可能会发生「过拟合」现象 (overfitting),甚至导致模型工作机制熵增,使得生成的结果变得更加不可靠,违背常理,失去代表性。
这可以类比为生物学上的近亲繁殖,对同族遗传资源(基因/数据)的过度利用,更有可能导致错误的因素在生成结果中纯合。只是这种 AI 的「近亲繁殖」结果不像生物学那么容易一眼看出来。事实上大部分人不具备分辨能力,而这会导致 AI 生成的错误结果被更多采纳和再利用,最终形成一种脱离现实的逻辑闭环。
38. AI 不会颠覆学校,而是实现教育的「去中介化」。未来的神童们将绕过传统教育体系,通过直接获取受众、实践验证的方式来快速成长。今天的孩子都当 KOL,而创业者才会是 Z 世代孩子的理想职业。
schools won’t be disrupted by ai. they’ll be disintermediated. smart teens will skip formal education, build audiences, run experiments, and learn faster. kids say they want to become creators but creators are becoming entrepreneurs. entrepreneurship becomes the most popular profession.
39. AI 创业泡沫的结果:18 个月后,八成的 AI 创业公司将会像劣质小广告一样无人搭理,而剩下的两成会晋升为数字基建。
in 18 months, 80% of the “ai startup” category will look like spam. the rest will become infrastructure.
40. A/B 测试没意义了。当 AI 能在一夜之间完成200次迭代实验,何必再争论一个按钮该用什么颜色?
conversion rate product debates are obsolete. Why argue over 2 button colors when AI focus groups can test 200 variations overnight?
41. 传统营销即将被 AI 接管,营销专员必须向上游迁移。讲述品牌故事、营造独特氛围、传递品牌能量——才是未来营销人的核心竞争力。
most of what we call “marketing” is about to be done by ai. humans will move upstream into storytelling, vibes, and brand energy.
42. 今年最明智的招聘策略?聘请一位 AI 运营总监,一个能搭建 AI 工作流、整合工具链,并交付实际成果的人才。
the best hiring decision you can make this year? a head of ai ops. someone who can build workflows, glue tools, and ship outcomes.
43. 第一头估值十亿的 AGI 独角兽,初看必定像个玩具。所有改变世界的东西都是这样。
the first $1b AGI startup will look like a toy at first. all world-changing interfaces do.
APPSO 的延展思考:忘了哪个投资人好像说过类似的话。
「当你的孩子拿着一个玩具说它什么都懂的时候,赶快查查背后公司的估值。」
44. AI 驱动的渠道大于 AI 驱动的产品。二流产品一流分发,好过无人问津的一流产品。AI 驱动的分发能力 > AI驱动的产品力。在注意力经济时代,二流产品加上顶级流量 > 顶级产品却没有流量。
ai-powered distribution > ai-powered product. a mid product with elite reach will beat a great product with no attention every time.
45. 用户对订阅制的反感仍然存在,而为有效结果付费的模式尚处于蓝海。率先采用后者的企业将获得碾压传统 SaaS 巨头的绝对优势。
people still hate monthly subscriptions. outcome-based pricing is still in early days. implementing this will be a competitive advantage for lots of companies. large saas wont be able to compete with you.
46. 我们正处在商业规则全面重写的黄金时代,它会持续多久我不清楚。但明确的是:那些率先驾驭新工具、构建受众社群的人,拥有绝对竞争优势。
i don’t know how long this window stays open, but we’re in a moment where all the rules of building businesses are being rewritten. for the people playing with these new tools, creating audiences and communities, you’ve got an unfair advantage.
写在最后:
生前何必久睡,死后自会长眠?
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